
The Commerce Department said construction of new homes and apartments fell 4 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 557,000 from an upwardly revised 580,000 in November. Applications for future projects, however, increased strongly as the industry ramps up for the spring selling season.
The results for new home construction were lower than the 580,000 forecast by economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters and were led by declines of 19 percent in the Northeast and Midwest. Construction fell 1 percent in the West, but rose more than 3 percent in the South.
“Builders continue to be nervous about the employment situation and the number of foreclosures out there competing with them,” said David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. Another problem, Crowe noted, is that builders have seen their financing for new projects dry up steadily over the past 18 months.
Applications for new building permits, a gauge of future activity, rose 11 percent to an annual rate of 653,000, a far stronger showing than economists had predicted and the highest level of activity since October 2008.
Analysts were divided about the report's significance. Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight, noted that home permits have increased strongly for two straight months, which should lead to more hiring in the construction industry.
“The economy has performed much better than we had anticipated that it would perform six months ago,” Newport said.
However, Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the slowdown in construction in the last three months of the year will be a drag on economic output.
While home construction usually snaps back at the start of an economic recovery, Guatieri expects the housing and financial crises to “leave an enduring footprint on this recovery.”
The building industry has dramatically scaled back construction amid the worst housing bust in decades. Thousands of foreclosed homes have been dumped on the market at bargain prices that make it difficult for builders to compete.
Another source of worry is that lending standards are also tightening too. The Federal Housing Administration, a primary source of funding for first-time homebuyers, said Wednesday it would raise fees and tighten lending standards to shore up its strapped finances.
Meanwhile, inflation pressures at the wholesale level eased in December as a drop in energy prices offset a big jump in food costs.
The Labor Department said Wednesday that wholesale prices edged up 0.2 percent last month, much slower than the 1.8 percent surge in November. Energy prices, which had been up for two months, fell in December.
The price performance at the wholesale level combined with last week's benign reading on consumer prices supported the view that inflation is not a problem.
The report reflects a sharp drop in demand after buyers stopped scrambling to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homeowners. It had been due to expire on Nov. 30. But Congress extended the deadline until April 30 and expanded it with a new $6,500 credit for existing homeowners who move.
“It's ‘exit stage left' for first-time homebuyers,” wrote Guy LeBas, an analyst with Janney Montgomery Scott.
December's sales fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million, from an unchanged pace of 6.54 million in November, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. Sales had been expected to fall by about 10 percent, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
The report “places a large question mark over whether the recovery can be sustained when the extended tax credit expires,” wrote Paul Dales, U.S. economist with Capital Economics.
The median sales price was $178,300, up 1.5 percent from a year earlier and the first yearly gain since August 2007. However, some of that increase could be due to a drop-off in purchases from first-time buyers who tend to buy less expensive homes.
Sales are now up 21 percent from the bottom a year ago, but down 25 percent from the peak more than four years ago.
The big question hanging over the housing market this spring is whether a tentative recovery will stumble after the government pulls back support. The Federal Reserve's $1.25 trillion program to push down mortgage rates is scheduled to expire at the end of March — a month before the newly extended tax credit runs out.
Last year, first-time buyers were the main driver of the housing market, but their presence is on the decline. They accounted for 43 percent of purchases in December, down from about half in November, the Realtors group said.
The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 7 percent to 3.3 million. That's a 7.2 month supply at the current sales pace, close to a healthy level of about 6 months.
Total sales for 2009 closed out the year at 5.16 million, up about 5 percent from a year earlier. That was the first annual sales gain since 2005. But prices fell dramatically last year, declining 12.4 percent to a median of $173,500, the largest decline since the Great Depression.
Though the results missed Wall Street's expectations, the Realtors' group says there are signs the market is finally stabilizing.
“There is some sustainable momentum building in the housing market right now,” said Lawrence Yun, the group's chief economist. However, he cautioned that the recovery will depend on whether the economy starts adding jobs in the second half of the year.
Many experts project home prices, which started to rise last summer, will fall again over the winter. That's because foreclosures make up a larger proportion of sales during the winter months, when fewer sellers choose to put their homes on the market.
Despite fears that home prices are starting to fall again, some analysts still believe the worst is over.
“We do not believe it is fair to consider this a double dip in the housing market,” Michelle Meyer, an economist with Barclays Capital, wrote last week. “The recovery is still under way, but hitting some bumps in the road.”
There's one credit for first-time homebuyers and another that primarily benefits homebuyers who owned a home before. But don't mix it up with the first-time homebuyer credit in 2008, which actually was a long-term loan.
There are maximum income levels and maximum sales prices. And vacation homes or rental property don't qualify.
“If you want to spend two hours reading the instructions and translating them and finding out whether you qualify, yes, it's relatively simple,” said Jeff Schnepper, an MSN Money tax expert and author of “How to Pay Zero Taxes.”
Some questions and answers about the homebuyers tax credit:
Q. What's the purpose of the credit?
A. Congress passed the tax credits in an effort to boost the struggling housing industry and fight recession. Indications are that it's had an impact. The National Association of Realtors reported that November sales of existing homes were up 44 percent from a year earlier. Although new home sales dropped in November, figures from the Commerce Department show that they're up 8 percent from the low in January 2009.
Q. How many people are claiming the credit?
A. “In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires,” Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' chief economist, said.
Q. How many versions are there?
A. There are actually three.
The first credit, for first-time homebuyers, was really a long-term, interest-free loan that has to be paid back over 15 years. The maximum credit was $7,500 for a principal residence purchased between April 9, 2008, and June 30, 2009.
The second iteration made the first-time homebuyers credit a true credit — it doesn't have to be paid back — and raised the amount to a maximum $8,000. It applied to homes purchased between Jan. 1, 2009, and Nov. 30, 2009.
The third change extended the eligibility dates to homes purchased through April 30, 2010. It also added a credit for long-time homeowners who purchased a new residence between Nov. 7, 2009, and April 30, 2010, but at a reduced value — up to $6,500.
Q. Do I automatically qualify if I purchased a house during those periods?
A. No. To qualify, the house has to be used as a primary residence. If purchased after Nov. 6, 2009, it cannot have cost more than $800,000. If you're a long-time homeowner, you had to have lived in the same house consecutively for five out of the last eight years, though you need not have lived in or owned that house at the time you buy your new home.
For homes purchased after Nov. 6, 2009, the credit also begins phasing out for individuals with modified adjusted gross incomes above $125,000, and for married couples filing jointly with incomes above $225,000.
Q. How does the Internal Revenue Service define a principal residence?
A. “Your main home is the one you live in most of the time,” the agency said. “It can be a house, houseboat, mobile home, cooperative apartment or condominium.”
Q. How do I claim the credit?
A. There's a form, 5405, to fill out. You'll also have to submit a copy of your settlement statement, usually Form HUD-1, with the names and signatures of all parties, the property address, the sales price and date of purchase.
To avoid refund delays, the IRS recommends that long-time homeowners who purchase a new home also provide documents to show they meet the requirement for consecutive years lived in their old house. These can include mortgage interest statements, or property tax or homeowner's insurance records.
Q. Do I have to wait until I file my 2010 taxes to claim the credit for a home purchased before the deadline in 2010?
A. No. “You can choose to claim the credit on your 2009 return for a home you bought in 2010 that qualifies for the credit,” the IRS said.
Q. I purchased my home in 2008 and filed for a credit on my tax returns. Do I still have to pay it back?
A. Yes. When Congress did away with the repayment requirement, it did not do so retroactively.
Q. What if I want to keep my original house and use it as a rental property?
A. If you qualify for the credit as a long-time homeowner, nothing in the law requires you to sell the original house. However, you must make the new one your primary residence.
Q. What if I decide to sell the house I got the credit for or convert it to a rental property?
A. You will have to pay back the credit if you don't keep the purchased house as your permanent residence for three years.
The Treasury Department unveiled sweeping rules this week to help financially troubled homeowners who need to sell but can't get a price high enough to pay off their mortgages. Homeowners will even get $1,500 to help cover their moving costs.
The plan is designed to help homeowners who don't have the income or debt levels to qualify for a loan modification under the Obama administration's $75 billion Making Home Affordable program. The plan establishes timelines, a standard process and documents, and cash incentives for participation.
“There's always efficiency with uniformity,” said Vicki Vidal, associate vice president of government affairs at the Mortgage Bankers Association. “It makes it easier for the parties involved to know what to expect.”
Short sales, as these deals are known, reduce the damage to the borrowers' credit record and save the lenders the cost of foreclosure. Short sales also help neighboring property values because the sales price is usually higher than what the house would fetch in a foreclosure auction.
About one in 10 home sales this year was a short sale, or an estimated 500,000 sales, according to the National Association of Realtors. In areas like Las Vegas, southern Florida and California, the ratio is far higher.
To qualify under the new guidelines:
• The property must be the homeowner's principal residence.
• The homeowner is delinquent on the mortgage or default looks likely.
• The loan was made before Jan. 1 this year and is less than $729,750
• The borrowers' total monthly mortgage payment exceeds 31 percent of their before-tax income.
The plan is designed to accelerate the necessary agreements between lenders, real estate agents, buyers and sellers. Too often short sales are anything but quick.
Nancy Philbrick, an agent in Manchester, N.H., waited half a year for Bank of America to approve or reject a short sale offer she sent in for her clients back in April. The couple fell behind on their mortgage after a difficult pregnancy saddled them with a stack of medical bills. They're now renting a home nearby and trying to get back on their feet.
Philbrick found out in late October her client's file moved to another party for review. But the offer expired Oct. 15 after two extensions and the buyer backed out of the deal. Philbrick and her sellers are back to square one.
For its part, Bank of America, like other lenders and servicers, has spent millions of dollars to upgrade computer systems and hire another 3,500 workers for its 12 call centers. The bank services 14 million loans, the most in the nation, including the troubled portfolio of Countrywide Financial, which it bought last year.
But the Treasury Department's plan for short sales has some short comings.
Mortgage companies don't have to launch the program until April 5, 2010, which is no relief for homebuyers, sellers and real estate agents mired in deals now. The program is also voluntary for lenders who hold second mortgages, such as home equity loans or piggy-back loans. The Treasury Department has estimated that about half of homeowners in default have more than one loan on their properties.
While those other secondary debt holders can receive up to $3,000 to release their claims on the property, that may not be enough for larger creditors who would rather go after the borrower.
“Three thousand dollars is not much if you have a $200,000 second lien,” said Jeff Lischer, managing director of regulatory policy at the National Association of Realtors. “In large measure, the success of the program depends on the willingness of investors to accept a short sale.”
Nevertheless, the new guidelines should reduce paperwork by requiring mortgage companies to use the financial and hardship documents submitted by borrowers seeking a loan modification. Mortgage companies will have to approve short sale terms, including the minimum listing price, before the house is put on the market, which should speed up the approval process.
The government also provides strict deadlines and specific documents for the process. Mortgage companies will receive $1,000 to cover administrative costs.
The number, up from 1.1 million a year earlier, is likely to keep rising through the middle of next year or later, said Mark Fleming, chief economist of First American CoreLogic, the real estate research firm that released the study.
Already, the foreclosure backlog is equal to nearly half the 3.8 million unsold new and existing homes currently on the market, First American said.
“We're going to be dealing with high levels of distressed (sales) in the marketplace for at least a couple of years,” Fleming said. “It's not just all going to disappear.”
Other reports have come up with larger estimates. But FirstAmerican assumes that fewer delinquent borrowers — only about one-third — will wind up losing their homes. It also estimates that nearly 30 percent of bank-owned properties have already been listed for sale.
In many markets around the country, the number of new foreclosures has dropped in recent months as homeowners are reviewed for loan modification programs. But real estate agents, who have seen this as an encouraging sign, still fear that an onslaught is coming.
“We've been in recovery mode for most of the year. How many foreclosures do they have to dump on the market to affect that? I don't know,” Deborah Farmer, owner of StarLight Realty in Tampa said.
The average fixed rate on a 30-year mortgage was 4.94 percent this week, up from 4.81 percent last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday.
Mortgage rates are closely tied to yields on long-term government debt, which have risen since the average fixed rate on 30-year mortgages hit a record low of 4.71 percent the week of Dec. 3.
A Federal Reserve program to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities has kept rates on 30-year mortgages around 5 percent this year. The program, geared to make home buying more affordable, is set to end next spring.
The low rates resulted in a wave of refinancing activity: Roughly three out of four mortgage applications were for refinancing during the first two weeks of December, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported.
Freddie Mac collects mortgage rates each week from lenders around the country. Rates often fluctuate, even within a given day.
The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage rose to 4.38 percent from 4.32 percent last week.
Rates on five-year, adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 4.37 percent, up from 4.26 percent last week. Rates on one-year, adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 4.34 percent from 4.24 percent.
The rates do not include add-on fees known as points. The nationwide fee for loans in Freddie Mac's survey averaged 0.7 point for 30-year loans. The fee averaged 0.6 point for 15-year and five-year loans, and 0.5 point for one-year mortgages.